Theo Todman's Web Page - Notes Pages

Personal Identity

Probability

(Text as at 06/07/2023 00:43:12)

Plug Note¹

• Thesis Text:
  1. I, and probably many others, tend to say that certain propositions are ‘unlikely’ to be true; that they are ‘improbable’.
  2. But, just what does probable mean in this context, given that this “probability” usually cannot be quantified – ie. given a number in the range [0,1]?
  3. In philosophical circles, the philosophy of rational belief closely follows Bayesian principles and conditional probabilities. So, while there is no objective probability for the truth or falsehood of our beliefs, we can supply subjective probabilities and revise these in the light of new evidence.
  4. I really don’t think this topic has much to do with my thesis on the topic of Personal Identity, though I will be on the look-out hereafter. It seems to be more relevant (as far as my own concerns go) in the philosophy of religion in regards to the probabilities of certain beliefs – in miracles and the like. I’ve also written some brief Notes on Pascal’s Wager, which I argue should be rejected.

• ---

  Further Remarks:
  1. This note isn’t designed to provide a serious discussion of the mathematical theory of probability, but (eventually) to address the question of just what it is that makes the conclusion of a non-deductive argument more or less probable.
  2. I made a stab at the question “what does probable mean” in my youth, prior to philosophical training. The results (such as they are) are here². I’ve extracted the relevant items below:-
     1. A requirement of great importance is the ability to assign a probability to any statement about the world (or within a model), in accord with the likelihood of it being a true statement.
     2. Ideally, we would like to assign a mathematical probability to any statement, ie. a real number in the range 0 to 1, with 0 representing impossibility & 1 representing certainty. As in the frequency theory of probability, the assigned number should represent the proportion of situations in which the statement is expected to turn out to be true.
        1. However, in most cases this approach has a spurious aura of precision, because most situations are not regular or repeatable events.
        2. It must be noted that where the possible outcomes of an experiment form a continuum or other infinite set, the a priori probability of any particular outcome is 0. Nonetheless, we would not describe any particular outcome, a posteriori, as unlikely. Rather, we would divide the domain of possible outcomes into equivalence classes (whose total probability may be obtained by summation or integration) and judge the outcome of the experiment by the probability of its class.
           
     3. In practical life, where it is unreasonable to assign a numerical probability to an event, we do assign non-mathematical probabilities to statements and base our actions on them.
        1. For instance, a jury may decide that a defendant is guilty "beyond reasonable doubt". That is, using the mathematical model, the defendant is probably guilty with a probability that approaches 1. However, the ascription of a number (say 0.95) to this probability does not have as precise a meaning as the accuracy of the number suggests. A possibility is to apply a tolerance factor (eg. 0.95 +/- 0.05), which would indicate the degree of uncertainty.
           
     4. It also makes sense to say that certain statements are more probable than others, even when they do not refer to the same domain of experience.
        1. For instance, one could take odds on the contention that a colony will be founded on the moon before 100m is run in under 9.0s.
        2. By taking odds one might be able to assign a probability to any statement, though, because of the marginal utility of goods, definition would be lost at the ends of the spectrum (unless comparative probabilities such as those in the previous example are adopted).
        3. However, because the set of all possible statements about possible experience is not closed, we cannot easily assign mathematical probabilities to them without slipping into non-linearity. That is, the accumulation of new statements might require a renormalisation of the whole scale of probabilities to smooth out anomalies brought about by bunching.
           
     5. It would seem to be possible to assign a priori probabilities to statements about the world, the probability being assigned a priori to that particular potential experience, by reference to other actual experiences, though not a priori to all experience.
        1. This assumes that there is regularity in physical & even human behaviour that may be assumed to apply unless there is strong evidence to the contrary.
           
     6. A statement with a low a priori probability may yet have a higher a posteriori probability because of the strength of actual testimony or experimental evidence.
  3. I considered the question of Pascal’s Wager in my youth, prior to philosophical training. The results (such as they are) are here³. I’ve extracted the relevant text below:-
     Pascal's Wager is not to be accepted.
     1. There is an argument, known as Pascal's Wager, to the effect that although we are unsure whether there is a God or not, we still ought to believe in him on the basis of expected reward (using "expected" in the probabilistic sense of V * p, where V = "value of outcome" & p = "probability of occurrence of outcome").
     2. The argument proceeds as follows. Since the gain obtained if our belief in the Christian God turns out to be well placed is infinite (eternal bliss) whereas the loss incurred by believing in vain is finite (loss of some pleasure during a finite life), we are being rational to believe however low the probability of our belief being correct is taken to be, because our expected gain is infinite, whereas our expected loss is finite.
     3. This argument is fallacious for several reasons
        1. It does not work in the very case for which Pascal is arguing - ie. there is no evidence in the Bible or from Christian tradition to suggest that God would award eternal life to anyone whose faith was of this "insurance policy" type.
        2. It is not possible to "turn on" belief at will. The most that can be done is to make a pretence, which would not deceive an omniscient God.
        3. The argument is the ultimate abuse of the laws of probability, which are aimed at events that occur, or may be induced to occur, many times.
        4. Admittedly, we have on occasion used probabilities in this irregular sense ourselves, but we have not multiplied these numbers by infinities.
        5. As is well known, the product of two variables, one of which tends asymptotically to infinity while the other tends to zero, may be zero, infinity or any value in between depending on the relationship between the variables. Consequently, we have no assurance that the "expected reward" of our pseudo-faith is non-zero.
        6. Because it is difficult to justify assigning a zero probability to any non self-contradictory statement, Pascal's wager could be applied equally validly to any belief with potentially infinite rewards. If the argument is correct, we would be as rational to become Muslims as Christians. Indeed, we would be more rational to become Muslims, since we would be more likely to reap our reward, if there is one, under the terms of Islam than under those of Christianity.
     4. The reason I have stressed this point is because religion is for many an insurance policy, and many seem to accept the Wager on this basis. It would be easy to slide from belief to this position. To do so would be to evade all the issues.
        
  4. The above caveats not-withstanding, it is important to know something of the mathematical theory of probability – and also of statistics, to some degree. A representative selection of study material is therefore given below.
  5. One thing I have noticed is that the level of the mathematics in the philosophy of probability and related topics is very trivial, compared with that in the mathematics of probability itself. I’ve given a list of mathematical texts at the end of the reading lists.

References

• Relevant Works cited above: No items to list.
• For a Page of Links⁴ to this Note, Click here. Far too many items for an updating run, but useful to cherry-pick from. However, despite the number, it might be worth doing an updating run so that the very many times I’ve used the term “probability” or “probable” are picked up.
• I’ve included in the lists below my mathematics undergraduate Notes and books on the purely technical and mathematical theory of probability and statistics that I actually own, and which I’d like to read (or re-read).
• Works on this topic that I’ve actually read⁵, include the following:-
  • Aeon:
    1. "Aeon - Video - Are university admissions biased?", 2017, External Link
    2. "Aeon - Video - Degrees of uncertaincy", 2021, External Link
    3. "Broks (Paul) - Are coincidences real?", 2023, External Link
    4. "Colquhoun (David) - The problem with p-values", 2016, No Abstract, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    5. "Flora (Carlin) - How luck works", 2015, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    6. "Ghosh (Arunabh) - Counting China", 2020, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    7. "Hand (David) - What are the chances?", 2014, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    8. "Lam (Barry) - Video - Proportional verdicts", 2022, External Link
    9. "Lange (Marc) - Video - The paradox of the ravens", 2020, External Link
    10. "Owen (Andy) - What luck in war reveals about the role of chance in life", 2022, External Link
    11. "Rank (Mark R.) - What we gain by recognising the role of chance in life", 2024, External Link
    12. "Shapiro (Lawrence) - A drop in the sea", 2013, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    13. "Titelbaum (Michael G.) - How to think like a Bayesian", 2024, External Link
    14. "Weisberg (Jonathan) - Video - Bertrand's Paradox", 2022, External Link
  • General:
    1. "Ayer (A.J.) - Truth and Probability", 1946
    2. "Glymour (Clark) - Why I am Not a Bayesian", 1981, No Abstract
    3. "Hand (David) - The Improbability Principle: Why coincidences, miracles and rare events happen all the time", Book
    4. "O'Hear (Anthony) - Probability", 1989
    5. "Papineau (David) - Methodology: Confirmation and Probability", 1998, Annotations, No Abstract
    6. "Popper (Karl) - Corroboration: The Merits of Improbability", 1972, Write-Up Note⁶
    7. "Salmon (Wesley) - Rationality and Objectivity in Science or Tom Kuhn Meets Tom Bayes", 1990, No Abstract
    8. "Schneider (Suzanne) - Who bears the risk?", 2024, External Link
    9. "Skyrms (Brian) - Choice and Chance - An Introduction to Inductive Logic", 2000, Book
    10. "Smith (Martin) - Believing the Unlikely", 2016, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    11. "Smith (Martin) - When Probability is Not Enough", 2016, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    12. "Smith (Martin) - Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row Is Not Surprising", 2017, Write-Up Note⁷, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    13. "Weatherson (Brian) - The Bayesian and the Dogmatist", 2006
• A further reading list might start with:-
  • General:
    1. "Adams (Ernest) - A Primer of Probability Logic", 1998, Book, Read = 1%
    2. "Adams (Ernest) - On the Logic of High Probability", 1986, Internal PDF Link, Read = 14%
    3. "Adams (Ernest) - The Logic of Conditionals: An Application of Probability to Deductive Logic", 1975, Book, Read = 1%
    4. "Arntzenius (Frank) & Hall (Ned) - On What We Know About Chance", 2003, Internal PDF Link
    5. "Augustine (Keith) & Fishman (Yonatan I.) - The Dualist’s Dilemma: The High Cost of Reconciling Neuroscience with a Soul", 2015, Read = 22%, Footnote₈
    6. "Ayer (A.J.) - Probability and Evidence", 1973, Book
    7. "Baron (Jonathan) - Uncertainty and Probability within Utilitarian Theory", 2017, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 6%
    8. "Bricmont (Jean), Etc., Eds. - Chance in Physics: Foundations and Perspectives", 2001, Book, Read = 1%
    9. "Bryman (Alan) & Cramer (Duncan) - Quantitative Data Analysis with SPSS Release 8 for Windows", 1999, Book, Read = 1%
    10. "Cambridge, Todman (Theo) - Probability and its Applications", 1974, Book
    11. "Douven (Igor) & Williamson (Timothy) - Generalizing the Lottery Paradox", 2006, Internal PDF Link
    12. "Eagle (Anthony) - Randomness is Unpredictability", 2005, Internal PDF Link
    13. "Eagle (Anthony) - Twenty-One Arguments Against Propensity Analyses of Probability", 2004, Internal PDF Link
    14. "Earman (John) - Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory", 1992, Book, Read = 2%
    15. "Earman (John) - Bayes or Bust? A Critical Examination of Bayesian Confirmation Theory", 1992, No Abstract, Internal PDF Link, Read = 3%
    16. "Elga (Adam) - Infinitesimal Chances and the Laws of Nature", 2004, Internal PDF Link
    17. "Elliott (Katrina) - Exploring a New Argument for Synchronic Chance", 2018, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 13%
    18. "Gardner (Dan) - Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear", Book
    19. "Greene (Judith) & D'Oliveira (Manuela) - Learning to Use Statistical Tests in Psychology", 1999, Book, Read = 2%
    20. "Hajek (Alan) - What Conditional Probability Could Not Be", 2003, Internal PDF Link
    21. "Hall (Ned) - Correcting The Guide to Objective Chance", 1994, No Abstract, Internal PDF Link
    22. "Hall (Ned) - Two Mistakes About Credence and Chance", 2004, Internal PDF Link
    23. "Hamilton (Lawrence) - Modern Data Analysis: A First Course in Applied Statistics", 1990, Book, Read = 2%
    24. "Hawthorne (John) - Degree-of-Belief and Degree-of-Support: Why Bayesians Need Both Notions", 2005
    25. "Hebblethwaite (B.L.) - Mellor's 'Bridge-Hand' Argument", 1986, Internal PDF Link, Read = 17%
    26. "Hempel (Carl) - On the Logical Form of Probability Statements", 1937, Internal PDF Link
    27. "Hogg (Robert V.) & Craig (Allen T.) - Introduction to Mathematical Statistics", 1997, Book, Read = 1%
    28. "Howson (Colin) & Urbach (Peter) - Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach", 2006, Book, Read = 3%
    29. "Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph), Eds. - Degrees of Belief", 2009, Book, Read = 6%, Footnote₉
    30. "Kahneman (Daniel) & Tversky (Amos) - Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk", 1979, Internal PDF Link, Read = 4%
    31. "Keller (Joseph B.) - The Probability of Heads", 1986, No Abstract, Internal PDF Link
    32. "Lewis (David) - A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance", 1980, Read = 2%
    33. "Lewis (David) - Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities", 1976, Internal PDF Link, Read = 5%
    34. "Lewis (David) - Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities II", 1986, Internal PDF Link, Read = 11%
    35. "Marasoiu (Andrei) - Review of 'Degrees of Belief' (Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph), Eds)", 2009, External Link, Read = 133%
    36. "Maxwell (A.E.) - Analysing Qualitative Data", 1971, Book, Read = 1%
    37. "McGinn (Colin) - Single-case Probability and Logical Form", 1979, Internal PDF Link, Read = 17%
    38. "Mellor (D.H.) - God and Probability", 1969, Internal PDF Link, Read = 8%
    39. "Owen (David) - Hume Versus Price on Miracles and Prior Probabilities: Testimony and the Bayesian Calculation", 1987, Internal PDF Link, Read = 7%
    40. "Papineau (David) - Metaphysics over Methodology - Or, Why Infidelity Provides No Grounds To Divorce Causes from Probabilities", 2001, No Abstract, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    41. "Papineau (David) - Probabilities and Causes", 1985, Internal PDF Link
    42. "Papineau (David) & Beebee (Helen) - Probability as a Guide to Life", 1997, No Abstract, Internal PDF Link
    43. "Plantinga (Alvin) - Probability and Defeaters", 2003, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 11%
    44. "Ross (Sheldon) - A First Course in Probability", 1998, Book
    45. "Schellenberg (J.L.) - Pluralism and Probability", 1997, Internal PDF Link
    46. "Schlesinger (George N.) - Miracles and Probabilities", 1987, Internal PDF Link
    47. "Sklar (Lawrence) - Is Probability a Dispositional Property?", 1970, Internal PDF Link, Read = 8%
    48. "Sklar (Lawrence) - Probability as a Theoretical Concept", 1979, Internal PDF Link, Read = 17%
    49. "Sklar (Lawrence) - Unfair to Frequencies", 1973, Internal PDF Link, Read = 8%
    50. "Smith (Martin) - Coin Trials", 2018, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 7%
    51. "Smith (Martin) - Intuitionistic Probability and the Bayesian Objection to Dogmatism", 2017, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 7%
    52. "Smith (Martin) - When Does Evidence Suffice for Conviction?", 2017, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 4%
    53. "Sobel (Jordan) - On the Evidence of Testimony for Miracles: A Bayesian Interpretation of David Hume's Analysis", 1987, Internal PDF Link
    54. "Spiegel (Murray) - Theory and Problems of Probability and Statistics (Schaum's Outline Series)", 1975, Book, Read = 1%
    55. "Sunstein (Cass R.) - Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment", Book, Read = 1%
    56. "Swinburne (Richard) - Bayes, God, and the Multiverse", 2012, External Link, Internal PDF Link, Read = 11%
    57. "Swinburne (Richard) - The Intrinsic Probability of Theism", 2004
    58. "Van Inwagen (Peter) - Probability and Evil", 1997, No Abstract, Internal PDF Link
    59. "Van Inwagen (Peter) - Russell's China Teapot", 2012, No Abstract, External Link, Internal PDF Link
    60. "Williamson (Timothy) - How Probable is an Infinite Sequence of Heads?", 2007, Internal PDF Link
    61. "Williamson (Timothy) - Probability and Danger", 2009, External Link, Internal PDF Link
• For further papers held on-line of potential interest, follow this Link¹⁰. Total papers = 5.

  ---

• For a list of Works that have been considered, but have missed the cut for inclusion in this Section of my Thesis, see the following:-
  1. Read: No items to list.
  2. Further Reading: No items to list.
• This is mostly a place-holder¹¹.

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In-Page Footnotes:

Footnote 8:

• Despite the title, this is mostly about probabilistic – and especially Bayesian – reasoning.

Footnote 9:

• I have not itemised the papers in this book.

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Table of the Previous 9 Versions of this Note:

Date	Length	Title
20/09/2022 11:24:00	12907	Probability
02/05/2022 23:44:10	12526	Probability
16/02/2021 01:00:29	12011	Probability
12/06/2020 10:48:00	10288	Probability
14/07/2019 18:05:46	808	Probability
11/03/2018 20:19:41	2108	Probability
18/12/2010 19:58:05	582	Probability
21/05/2010 10:35:02	570	Probability
21/05/2010 10:27:50	514	Probability

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Note last updated	Reading List for this Topic	Parent Topic
06/07/2023 00:43:12	Probability	Logic of Identity

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Summary of Notes Referenced by This Note

Awaiting Attention (Personal Identity)	Note Links Explanation	Pascal's Wager	PID Note, Book & Paper Usage	Plug Note Apologia
Popper - Merits of Improbability	Probability	Surprising Coin-Toss Sequences (and Bridge Hands)	Works Read - Explanation

To access information, click on one of the links in the table above.

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Summary of Notes Citing This Note

Aeon Papers, 2, 3, 4

PID Note, Book & Paper Usage, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11

Thesis - Chapter 04 (Basic Metaphysical Issues), 2, 3, 4, 5

Thesis - Personal Identity, 2

Website Generator Documentation - Functors, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

To access information, click on one of the links in the table above.

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Authors, Books & Papers Citing this Note

Author	Title	Medium	Extra Links	Read?
Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul)	Aeon: 2019+	Paper	2, 3, 4	Yes
Shoemaker (David)	Personal Identity and Immortality	Paper		Yes
Todman (Theo)	Thesis - Chapter 04 (Basic Metaphysical Issues)	Paper	2, 3, 4, 5	Yes
Todman (Theo)	Thesis - Personal Identity	Paper	2	Yes

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References & Reading List

Author	Title	Medium	Source	Read?
Adams (Ernest)	A Primer of Probability Logic	Book - Cited	Adams (Ernest) - A Primer of Probability Logic	1%
Adams (Ernest)	A Primer of Probability Logic	Paper - By Subtopic	Adams - A Primer of Probability Logic	2%
Adams (Ernest)	On the Logic of High Probability	Paper - Cited	Journal of Philosophical Logic, Vol. 15, No. 3 (Aug., 1986), pp. 255-279	14%
Aeon	Video - Are university admissions biased?	Paper - Cited	Aeon, 08 December 2017	Yes
Aeon	Video - Degrees of uncertaincy	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 03 June 2021	Yes
Arntzenius (Frank) & Hall (Ned)	On What We Know About Chance	Paper - By Subtopic	British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Volume 54, Number 2, June 2003, pp. 171-179(9)	No
Ayer (A.J.)	Language, Truth and Logic	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Ayer (A.J.) - Language, Truth and Logic	Yes
Ayer (A.J.)	Probability and Evidence	Book - By Subtopic	Ayer (A.J.) - Probability and Evidence	No
Ayer (A.J.)	Truth and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Ayer - Language, Truth and Logic, Chapter 5	Yes
Baars (Bernard), Banks (William) & Newman (James)	Essential Sources in the Scientific Study of Consciousness	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Baars (Bernard), Banks (William) & Newman (James) - Essential Sources in the Scientific Study of Consciousness	1%
Baron (Jonathan)	Uncertainty and Probability within Utilitarian Theory	Paper - By Subtopic	Diametros 53 (2017): 6–25	6%
Besley (Tina)	Theorizing Teacher Responsibility in an Age of Neoliberal Accountability	Paper - By Subtopic	Beijing International Review of Education, 22 Mar 2019	10%
Bricmont (Jean), Etc., Eds.	Chance in Physics: Foundations and Perspectives	Book - By Subtopic	Bricmont (Jean), Etc., Eds. - Chance in Physics: Foundations and Perspectives	1%
Bricmont (Jean), Etc., Eds.	Chance in Physics: Foundations and Perspectives	Paper - By Subtopic	Bricmont (Jean), Etc., Eds. - Chance in Physics: Foundations and Perspectives	1%
Brilliant	brilliant.org	Paper - By Subtopic	Website	1%
Broks (Paul)	Are coincidences real?	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 24 March 2023	Yes
Cambridge, Todman (Theo)	Probability and its Applications	Book - By Subtopic	Cambridge, Todman (Theo) - Probability and its Applications	No
Carnap (Rudolf)	The Logical Foundations of Probability	Book - By Subtopic	Carnap (Rudolf) - The Logical Foundations of Probability	No
Carnap (Rudolf)	The Logical Foundations of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Carnap - The Logical Foundations of Probability	No
Colquhoun (David)	The problem with p-values	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 11 October, 2016	Yes
Deutsch (David)	Quantum Theory of Probability and Decisions	Paper - By Subtopic	Royal Society Proceedings: Proceedings: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 455, No. 1988 (Aug. 8, 1999), pp. 3129-3137	11%
Dielman (Terry E.)	Applied Regresson Analysis for Business and Economics	Book - By Subtopic	Dielman (Terry E.) - Applied Regresson Analysis for Business and Economics	No
Doolittle (Russell)	Probability and the Origin of Life	Paper - By Subtopic	Godfrey - Scientists Confront Creationism, 1983, Chapter 5	No
Douven (Igor) & Williamson (Timothy)	Generalizing the Lottery Paradox	Paper - By Subtopic	The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 57, No. 4 (Dec., 2006), pp. 755-779	No
Dubois (Didier) & Prade (Henri)	Accepted Beliefs, Revision and Bipolarity in the Possibilistic Framework	Paper - By Subtopic	Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph) - Degrees of Belief, Part II	No
Duncan (Craig)	Do Vague Probabilities Really Scotch Pascal's Wager?	Paper - By Subtopic	Philosophical Studies, Volume 112, Number 3, February 2003, pp. 279-290(12)	8%
Dupre (John) & Cartwright (Nancy)	Probability and Causality: Why Hume and Indeterminism Don't Mix	Paper - By Subtopic	Nous 22.4, Dec. 1988, pp. 521-536	No
Eagle (Anthony)	Randomness is Unpredictability	Paper - By Subtopic	British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 56 (2005), 749–90	No
Eagle (Anthony)	Twenty-One Arguments Against Propensity Analyses of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Erkenntnis, 60 (2004): 371–416	No
Ebert (Philip A.), Smith (Martin) & Durbach (Ian)	Lottery Judgments: A Philosophical and Experimental Study	Paper - By Subtopic	Forthcoming (as of November 2017) in Philosophical Psychology	4%
Edgington (Dorothy)	Counterfactuals: Truth versus Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, 8th October 2007	5%
Elga (Adam)	Infinitesimal Chances and the Laws of Nature	Paper - By Subtopic	Jackson - Lewisian Themes: The Philosophy of David K. Lewis, Chapter 6	No
Elliott (Katrina)	Exploring a New Argument for Synchronic Chance	Paper - By Subtopic	Philosophers' Imprint, Vol. 18, No. 2, January 2018, pp. 1-18	13%
Flora (Carlin)	How luck works	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 06 March 2015	Yes
Gardenfors (Peter) & Sahlin (Nils-Eric), Eds.	Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	Book - By Subtopic	Gardenfors (Peter) & Sahlin (Nils-Eric), Eds. - Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	0%
Gardner (Dan)	Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear	Book - By Subtopic	Gardner (Dan) - Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear	0%
Gardner (Dan)	Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear	Paper - By Subtopic	Gardner (Dan) - Risk: The Science and Politics of Fear	0%
Ghosh (Arunabh)	Counting China	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 23 July 2020	Yes
Godfrey (Laurie)	Scientists Confront Creationism	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Godfrey (Laurie) - Scientists Confront Creationism	No
Goldman (Alvin), Ed.	Readings in Philosophy and Cognitive Science	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Goldman (Alvin), Ed. - Readings in Philosophy and Cognitive Science	No
Goldschmidt (Tyron)	Existence Puzzles and Probabilistic Explanations	Paper - By Subtopic	Journal of the American Philosophical Association (2016) pp. 469-482	8%
Goodman (Jonathan R.)	How statistics are twisted to obscure public understanding	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 11 July, 2016	Yes
Grayling (Anthony), Ed.	Philosophy 1 - A Guide Through the Subject	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Grayling (Anthony), Ed. - Philosophy 1 - A Guide Through the Subject	28%
Gregory (Joshua)	Leibniz, the Identity of Indiscernibles, and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Philosophy and Phenomenological Research , Mar., 1954, Vol. 14, No. 3 (Mar., 1954), pp. 365-369	No
Haenni (Rolf)	Non-Additive Degrees of Belief	Paper - By Subtopic	Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph) - Degrees of Belief, Part II	No
Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul)	Aeon: C-F	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul) - Aeon: C-F	51%
Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul)	Aeon: Follow-up Boxes	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul) - Aeon: Follow-up Boxes	100%
Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul)	Aeon: G-K	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul) - Aeon: G-K	30%
Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul)	Aeon: Q-S	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hains (Brigid) & Hains (Paul) - Aeon: Q-S	29%
Hajek (Alan)	Arguments For - Or Against - Probabilism?	Paper - By Subtopic	Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph) - Degrees of Belief, Part II	No
Hajek (Alan)	What Conditional Probability Could Not Be	Paper - By Subtopic	Synthese, Volume 137, Number 3, December 2003, pp. 273-323(51)	No
Hall (Ned)	Correcting The Guide to Objective Chance	Paper - By Subtopic	Mind, Vol. 103, No. 412, Oct., 1994, pp. 505-517	No
Hall (Ned)	Two Mistakes About Credence and Chance	Paper - By Subtopic	Jackson - Lewisian Themes: The Philosophy of David K. Lewis, Chapter 8	No
Hand (David)	The Improbability Principle: Why coincidences, miracles and rare events happen all the time	Book - Cited	Hand (David) - The Improbability Principle: Why coincidences, miracles and rare events happen all the time	Yes
Hand (David)	The Improbability Principle: Why coincidences, miracles and rare events happen all the time	Paper - By Subtopic	Hand (David) - The Improbability Principle: Why coincidences, miracles and rare events happen all the time	Yes
Hand (David)	What are the chances?	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 16 June, 2014	Yes
Hawthorne (John)	Degree-of-Belief and Degree-of-Support: Why Bayesians Need Both Notions	Paper - By Subtopic	Mind, 114, Number 454, April 2005, pp. 277-320(44)	No
Hebblethwaite (B.L.)	Mellor's 'Bridge-Hand' Argument	Paper - By Subtopic	Religious Studies, Vol. 22, No. 3/4 (Sep. - Dec., 1986), pp. 473-479	17%
Hempel (Carl)	On the Logical Form of Probability Statements	Paper - By Subtopic	Erkenntnis (1930-1938), Vol. 7 (1937/1938), pp. 154-160	No
Hempel (Carl), Jeffrey (Richard)	Selected Philosophical Essays	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hempel (Carl), Jeffrey (Richard) - Selected Philosophical Essays	No
Hitchcock (Christopher), Ed.	Contemporary Debates in Philosophy of Science	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hitchcock (Christopher), Ed. - Contemporary Debates in Philosophy of Science	No
Horwich	Probability & Evidence	Book - By Subtopic	Horwich - Probability & Evidence	No
Howard-Snyder (Daniel), Ed.	The Evidential Argument from Evil	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Howard-Snyder (Daniel), Ed. - The Evidential Argument from Evil	1%
Howson (Colin) & Urbach (Peter)	Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Howson (Colin) & Urbach (Peter) - Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach	3%
Howson (Colin) & Urbach (Peter)	The Laws of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Howson & Urbach - Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, 2006	4%
Howson (Colin) & Urbach (Peter)	The Probability Calculus	Paper - By Subtopic	Howson & Urbach - Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, 2006	6%
Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph), Eds.	Degrees of Belief	Book - By Subtopic	Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph), Eds. - Degrees of Belief	6%
Hume (David)	Treatise I.III: Of Knowledge and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Hume, Mossner - A Treatise of Human Nature	40%
Hume (David), Mossner (Ernest)	A Treatise of Human Nature	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Hume (David), Mossner (Ernest) - A Treatise of Human Nature	17%
Humpfreys (Paul), Ed.	Patrick Suppes: Scientific Philosopher - Vol.1 - Probability and Probabilistic Causality	Book - By Subtopic	Humpfreys (Paul), Ed. - Patrick Suppes: Scientific Philosopher - Vol.1 - Probability and Probabilistic Causality	No
Humpfreys (Paul), Ed.	Patrick Suppes: Scientific Philosopher - Vol.1 - Probability and Probabilistic Causality	Paper - By Subtopic	Humpfreys (Paul), Ed. - Patrick Suppes: Scientific Philosopher - Vol.1 - Probability and Probabilistic Causality	No
Jackson (Frank) & Priest (Graham), Eds.	Lewisian Themes: The Philosophy of David K. Lewis	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Jackson (Frank) & Priest (Graham), Eds. - Lewisian Themes: The Philosophy of David K. Lewis	5%
Jeffrey (Richard)	Preference Among Preferences	Paper - By Subtopic	Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 71, No. 13, Preference and Probability, Jul. 18, 1974, pp. 377-391	No
Jeffrey (Richard)	Probable Knowledge	Paper - By Subtopic	Gardenfors & Sahlin - Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	No
Jeffreys (Harold)	The Theory of Probability	Book - By Subtopic	Jeffreys (Harold) - The Theory of Probability	No
Jeffreys (Harold)	The Theory of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Jeffreys - The Theory of Probability	No
Joyce (Jim)	Epistemic Deference	Paper - By Subtopic	Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society, 2007, draft	Yes
Kahneman (Daniel) & Tversky (Amos)	Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk	Paper - By Subtopic	Gardenfors & Sahlin - Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	4%
Keller (Joseph B.)	The Probability of Heads	Paper - By Subtopic	American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 93, No. 3, Mar., 1986, pp. 191-197	No
Kelly (Kevin)	Why Probability Does not Capture the Logic of Scientific Justification	Paper - By Subtopic	Hitchcock (Christopher) - Contemporary Debates in Philosophy of Science,, 2004	No
Kelsey (Hugh) & Glauert (Michael)	Bridge Odds for Practical Players	Book - By Subtopic	Kelsey (Hugh) & Glauert (Michael) - Bridge Odds for Practical Players	76%
Lam (Barry)	Video - Proportional verdicts	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 25 October 2022	Yes
Lange (Marc)	Video - The paradox of the ravens	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 06 July 2020	Yes
Levi (Isaac)	On Indeterminate Probabilities	Paper - By Subtopic	Gardenfors & Sahlin - Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	No
Lewis (David)	A Subjectivist's Guide to Objective Chance	Paper - By Subtopic	Lewis - Philosophical Papers Volume II, Part 5: Probability, Chapter 19	2%
Lewis (David)	Papers in Philosophical Logic	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Lewis (David) - Papers in Philosophical Logic	3%
Lewis (David)	Philosophical Papers Volume II	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Lewis (David) - Philosophical Papers Volume II	15%
Lewis (David)	Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities	Paper - By Subtopic	The Philosophical Review, Vol. 85, No. 3 (Jul., 1976), pp. 297-315	5%
Lewis (David)	Probabilities of Conditionals and Conditional Probabilities II	Paper - By Subtopic	The Philosophical Review, Vol. 95, No. 4 (Oct., 1986), pp. 581-589	11%
MacFarlane (John)	Assessment Sensitivity: Relative Truth and Its Applications	Book - By Subtopic	MacFarlane (John) - Assessment Sensitivity: Relative Truth and Its Applications	2%
Mackie (J.L.)	Concepts of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Mackie - Truth, Probability and Paradox: Studies in Philosophical Logic, 1972	No
Mackie (J.L.)	Truth, Probability and Paradox: Preface	Paper - By Subtopic	Mackie - Truth, Probability and Paradox: Studies in Philosophical Logic, 1972	No
Mackie (J.L.)	Truth, Probability and Paradox: Studies in Philosophical Logic	Book - By Subtopic	Mackie (J.L.) - Truth, Probability and Paradox: Studies in Philosophical Logic	No
Mackie (Penelope)	Compatibilism, Indeterminism, and Chance	Paper - By Subtopic	Royal Institute of Philosophy Supplements, Volume 82 (Metaphysics) - July 2018, pp. 265-287	5%
MacKinnon (Robert F.)	Bridge, Probability & Information	Book - By Subtopic	MacKinnon (Robert F.) - Bridge, Probability & Information	10%
MacKinnon (Robert F.)	Bridge, Probability & Information	Paper - By Subtopic	MacKinnon (Robert F.) - Bridge, Probability & Information	15%
Maher(Patrick)	Probability Captures the Logic of Scientific Confirmation	Paper - By Subtopic	Hitchcock (Christopher) - Contemporary Debates in Philosophy of Science,, 2004	No
Marasoiu (Andrei)	Review of 'Degrees of Belief' (Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph), Eds)	Paper - By Subtopic	Metapsychology Online Reviews, Nov 3rd 2009 (Volume 13, Issue 45)	No
Martin (Michael G.F.), Ed.	Mind - 114/454 (April 2005)	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Martin (Michael G.F.), Ed. - Mind - 114/454 (April 2005)	No
McGinn (Colin)	Single-case Probability and Logical Form	Paper - By Subtopic	Mind, New Series, Vol. 88, No. 350 (Apr., 1979), pp. 276-279	17%
Mellor (D.H.)	God and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Religious Studies, Vol. 5, No. 2 (Dec., 1969), pp. 223-234	8%
Nelson (Stephen A.)	Meteorites, Impacts, and Mass Extinction	Paper - By Subtopic	Tulane University Website, 27-Apr-2018	No
O'Hear (Anthony)	An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	O'Hear (Anthony) - An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science	Yes
O'Hear (Anthony)	Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	O'Hear - An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, 1989, Chapter 7	Yes
O'Hear (Anthony), Ed.	Metaphysics	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	O'Hear (Anthony), Ed. - Metaphysics	8%
Owen (Andy)	What luck in war reveals about the role of chance in life	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 07 September 2022	Yes
Papineau (David)	Metaphysics over Methodology - Or, Why Infidelity Provides No Grounds To Divorce Causes from Probabilities	Paper - By Subtopic	M-C Galavotti, P Suppes, and D Costantini (eds) Stochastic Causality, 2001	No
Papineau (David)	Methodology: Confirmation and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Grayling - Philosophy 1 - A Guide Through the Subject, 1998, Chapter 3 (part)	Yes
Papineau (David)	Probabilities and Causes	Paper - By Subtopic	Journal of Philosophy 82.2, Feb. 1985, pp. 57-74	No
Papineau (David)	Roots of Reason - Philosophical Essays on Rationality, Evolution and Probability	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Papineau (David) - Roots of Reason - Philosophical Essays on Rationality, Evolution and Probability	No
Papineau (David)	Uncertain Decisions and the Many-Minds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics	Paper - By Subtopic	Papineau - Roots of Reason - Philosophical Essays on Rationality, Evolution and Probability	No
Papineau (David) & Beebee (Helen)	Probability as a Guide to Life	Paper - By Subtopic	Papineau - Roots of Reason - Philosophical Essays on Rationality, Evolution and Probability	No
Plantinga (Alvin)	Epistemic Probability And Evil	Paper - By Subtopic	Howard-Snyder (Daniel) - The Evidential Argument from Evil	No
Plantinga (Alvin)	Probability and Defeaters	Paper - By Subtopic	Pacific Philosophical Quarterly, 84(3), 291-298, September 2003	11%
Popper (Karl)	Corroboration: The Merits of Improbability	Paper - By Subtopic	Popper - Objective Knowledge - An Evolutionary Approach	Yes
Popper (Karl)	Objective Knowledge - An Evolutionary Approach	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Popper (Karl) - Objective Knowledge - An Evolutionary Approach	2%
Putnam (Hilary)	Philosophical Papers 1 - Mathematics, Matter and Method	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Putnam (Hilary) - Philosophical Papers 1 - Mathematics, Matter and Method	1%
Putnam (Hilary)	Probability and Confirmation	Paper - By Subtopic	Putnam - Philosophical Papers 1 - Mathematics, Matter and Method	No
Ramsey (Frank)	Truth and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Gardenfors & Sahlin - Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	No
Rank (Mark R.)	What we gain by recognising the role of chance in life	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 23 May 2024	Yes
Rodriguez-Pereyra (Gonzalo)	Why is There Something Rather Than Nothing? A Probabilistic Answer Examined	Paper - By Subtopic	Philosophy 93, 2018, pp. 505-21	7%
Ropeik (David)	Fear of radiation is more dangerous than radiation itself	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 05 July, 2017	Yes
Ross (Sheldon)	A First Course in Probability	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Ross (Sheldon) - A First Course in Probability	0%
Ross (Sheldon)	A First Course in Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Ross (Sheldon) - A First Course in Probability	1%
Schellenberg (J.L.)	Pluralism and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Religious Studies, 33, Issue 02, June 1997, pp 143-159	No
Schick (Frederick)	Self-Knowledge, Uncertainty, and Choice	Paper - By Subtopic	Gardenfors & Sahlin - Decision, Probability and Utility - Selected Readings	No
Schlesinger (George N.)	Miracles and Probabilities	Paper - By Subtopic	Nous, Vol. 21, No. 2, Jun., 1987, pp. 219-232	No
Schneider (Suzanne)	Who bears the risk?	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 11 March 2024	Yes
Shapiro (Lawrence)	A drop in the sea	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 01 November, 2013	Yes
Sklar (Lawrence)	Is Probability a Dispositional Property?	Paper - By Subtopic	Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 67, No. 11 (Jun. 11, 1970), pp. 355-366	8%
Sklar (Lawrence)	Probability as a Theoretical Concept	Paper - By Subtopic	Synthese, Vol. 40, No. 3, Single-Case Probabilities (Mar., 1979), pp. 409-414	17%
Sklar (Lawrence)	Unfair to Frequencies	Paper - By Subtopic	Journal of Philosophy, Vol. 70, No. 2 (Jan. 25, 1973), pp. 41-52	8%
Skyrms (Brian)	Choice and Chance - An Introduction to Inductive Logic	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Skyrms (Brian) - Choice and Chance - An Introduction to Inductive Logic	Yes
Skyrms (Brian)	Diachronic Coherence and Radical Probabilism	Paper - By Subtopic	Huber (Franz) & Schmidt-Petri (Christoph) - Degrees of Belief, Part II	No
Skyrms (Brian)	Kinds of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Skyrms - Choice and Chance, 2000, Chapter 7	Yes
Skyrms (Brian)	Probability and Inductive Logic	Paper - By Subtopic	Skyrms - Choice and Chance, 2000, Chapter 2	Yes
Skyrms (Brian)	Probability and Scientific Inductive Logic	Paper - By Subtopic	Skyrms - Choice and Chance, 2000, Chapter 8	Yes
Skyrms (Brian)	The Probability Calculus	Paper - By Subtopic	Skyrms - Choice and Chance, 2000, Chapter 6	Yes
Smith (Martin)	A Generalised Lottery Paradox for Infinite Probability Spaces	Paper - By Subtopic	British Journal for the Philosophy of Science v61(4), 2010	8%
Smith (Martin)	Believing the Unlikely	Paper - By Subtopic	Oxford University Press blog, 29th May 2016	Yes
Smith (Martin)	Coin Trials	Paper - By Subtopic	Canadian Journal of Philosophy, 48.5, 726-741, Sept 2018	7%
Smith (Martin)	Intuitionistic Probability and the Bayesian Objection to Dogmatism	Paper - By Subtopic	Synthese v194(10), 2017	7%
Smith (Martin)	The Logic of Epistemic Justification	Paper - By Subtopic	Forthcoming (as of November 2017) in Peijnenburg, J. and Bewersdorf, B. eds. Epistemic Justification (Synthese special issue)	4%
Smith (Martin)	The Risk Minimisation Conception of Justification	Paper - By Subtopic	Introduction to Between Probability and Certainty: What Justifies Belief (Oxford University Press, 2016)	7%
Smith (Martin)	When Does Evidence Suffice for Conviction?	Paper - By Subtopic	Forthcoming (as of November 2017) in Mind	4%
Smith (Martin)	When Probability is Not Enough	Paper - By Subtopic	Oxford University Press blog, 31st January 2016	Yes
Smith (Martin)	Why Throwing 92 Heads in a Row Is Not Surprising	Paper - By Subtopic	Philosophers' Imprint, Vol. 17, No. 21, October 2017, pp. 1-8	Yes
Sunstein (Cass R.)	Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment	Book - By Subtopic	Sunstein (Cass R.) - Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment	1%
Sunstein (Cass R.)	Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment	Paper - By Subtopic	Sunstein (Cass R.) - Risk and Reason: Safety, Law, and the Environment	1%
Swinburne (Richard)	Bayes, God, and the Multiverse	Paper - By Subtopic	J.Chandler and V. Harrison, Eds., Probability in the Philosophy of Religion, Oxford University Press, 2012	11%
Swinburne (Richard)	Faith and Reason	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Swinburne (Richard) - Faith and Reason	2%
Swinburne (Richard)	God as the Simplest Explanation of the Universe	Paper - By Subtopic	O’Hear, Ed., Philosophy and Religion, RIP Supplement 68, CUP, 2011; and European Journal of Philosophy of Religion, 2.1 (2010), 1-24	14%
Swinburne (Richard)	Inductive Arguments	Paper - By Subtopic	Swinburne (Richard) - The Existence of God, 2004, Chapter 1; pp. 4-23 (20)	No
Swinburne (Richard)	Rational Belief	Paper - By Subtopic	Swinburne (Richard) - Faith and Reason, Chapter 2	No
Swinburne (Richard)	The Balance of Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Swinburne (Richard) - The Existence of God, 2004, Chapter 14; pp. 328-363 (36)	No
Swinburne (Richard)	The Existence of God	Book - By Subtopic (via Paper By Subtopic)	Swinburne (Richard) - The Existence of God	2%
Swinburne (Richard)	The Intrinsic Probability of Theism	Paper - By Subtopic	Swinburne (Richard) - The Existence of God, 2004, Chapter 5; pp. 93-110 (18)	No
Swinburne (Richard)	The Justification of Explanation	Paper - By Subtopic	Swinburne (Richard) - The Existence of God, 2004, Chapter 3; pp. 52-73 (22)	No
Swinburne (Richard)	The Probability of the Resurrection of Jesus	Paper - By Subtopic	Philosophia Christi 15, 2013, pp.239-252	17%
Thaler (Richard H.), Sunstein (Cass R.) & Balz (John P.)	Choice Architecture	Paper - By Subtopic	SSRN, April 2, 2010	10%
Titelbaum (Michael G.)	How to think like a Bayesian	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 10 January 2024	Yes
Todman (Theo)	Thesis - Probability	Paper - By Subtopic		Yes
Tversky (Amos) & Kahneman (Daniel)	Availability: A Heuristic for Judging Frequency and Probability	Paper - By Subtopic	Baars, Banks & Newman - Essential Sources in the Scientific Study of Consciousness	No
Tversky (Amos) & Kahneman (Daniel)	Probabilistic Reasoning	Paper - By Subtopic	Goldman - Readings in Philosophy and Cognitive Science	No
Van Inwagen (Peter)	Probability and Evil	Paper - By Subtopic	Van Inwagen - The Possibility of Resurrection and Other Essays in Christian Apologetics (1997), 69-87	No
Van Inwagen (Peter)	Russell's China Teapot	Paper - By Subtopic	The Right to Believe: Perspectives in Religious Epistemology (Lukasiewicz, Pouivet, eds.), 2012	No
Van Inwagen (Peter)	The Place of Chance in a World Sustained by God	Paper - By Subtopic	Divine and Human Action (Morris, ed.): 211-235 (1988)	No
Weisberg (Jonathan)	Video - Bertrand's Paradox	Paper - By Subtopic	Aeon, 15 February 2022	Yes
Wikipedia	Cauchy Distribution	Paper - By Subtopic	Wikipedia; Extract taken 01 May 2023	33%
Wikipedia	Normal Distribution	Paper - By Subtopic	Wikipedia; Extract taken 01 May 2023	12%
Wikipedia	Prosecutor's fallacy	Paper - By Subtopic	Wikipedia; Extract taken 01 May 2023	17%
Williamson (Timothy)	How Probable is an Infinite Sequence of Heads?	Paper - By Subtopic	Analysis 67, 3 (2007): 173-180	No
Williamson (Timothy)	Probability and Danger	Paper - By Subtopic	The Amherst Lecture in Philosophy 4 (2009): 1–35	No
Wood (Graham)	The fine-tuning argument: the ‘design inference’ version	Paper - By Subtopic	Religious Studies, Volume 42, Issue 04, December 2006, pp 467-471	No

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